French politics & month-end flows

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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
November 28th 2024
French politics are back in the headlines (not for the last time) and month-end flows are in, well, full-flow..

Opposing parties in France have denounced a very unpopular budget today put forward by Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Marine Le Pen's RN party are extraordinarily considering to join the left-wing bloc in parliament in a bid to topple the government in a confidence vote. 

Stocks in France are rapidly falling, but have yet to extend to the FX market for now. If the French government collapses, we will see a run on the Euro. Barnier wants to push through €40bn worth of spending cuts and raise taxes by €20bn to balance the Governments books.

The USD has fallen this week with month-end flows to blame. This is when a currency (usually the Dollar or a safe-haven or one that has been outperforming) is sold-off to re-balance portfolios, bank profit positions or prepare for what could be ahead in the market and for firms.

The Dollar has gained significant value of late, so there is no doubt in our minds that traders and investors are banking the quick and rich profit positions. Both variables have been Sterling positive thus far.
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Expected mid-market ranges for November 28th 2024


gbp

GBP
usd

USD


    $1.2625 - $1.2675    





gbp

GBP
eur

EUR


    €1.1950 - €1.2025    



On this day -

In 1520, Portuguese navigator Ferdinand Magellan begins crossing the Pacific Ocean


In 1814, The Times of London is the first newspaper available to a mass audience


In 1893, Women vote in a national election for the first time (New Zealand)


In 1907, scrap metal dealer Louis B Mayer opens the first movie theater in Massachusetts



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