GBP v EUR pushes higher amid French uncertainty



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
December 2nd, 2024
The Pound looks set to retest its 2024 high against the Euro..



GBP
The Pound jumped on the Euro over the weekend after the latest news out of France put the single currency under pressure. Political uncertainty is bad business for a currency and whilst the Euro wasn't immediately affected by the goings on in France last week, it was only a matter of time.

France's finance minister, Antoine Armand, said his government wouldn't accept budget deadlines from the National Rally (RN) party. RN had given the government until Monday to agree to RN's budget demands or face the threat of a no-confidence vote on Wednesday.

The problem is that Marine Le Pen's party is key for Prime Minister Michel Barnier. If they don't agree to the RN's budget concessions, we could see yet another large EU government collapse, which could see more £-€ returns..

£-$ enjoyed a good week gaining over 1% after the Dollar was sold-off due mainly to traders cashing in on profit positions over the last month or so. 

Once again it is a quiet week for the UK, but that doesn't mean GBP will be. For us, it is the perfect hedging position for £-€ to bank the out-of-the-blue jump and a wait-and-see approach to US data this week for £-$.



EUR
If the French budget does somehow get passed, then we could see a downshift in the £-€ rate, possibly by 1%. This is why the pair is a buy now, as you are buying certainty over the unknown. Of course if the French government does collapse then we could see a further 1% gain for GBP v EUR. 

Other than that, the Euro-Zone releases important GDP data this week which could be positive and German data which is likely to be once again negative. 



USD
The USD suffered a 'minor' setback last time out after what has been multi-weeks of consistent strength across the board. Things have started better this week after a threatening tweet from Donald Trump suggesting 100% tariffs will be implemented on the BRICS nations if they dare move away from trading in USD.

The US & USD relies on being the worlds ledger and currency to help off-set its crippling in-country debt. The 9 emerging countries have talked about creating a new currency, but Trump has been quick to respond firmly and tariff talk is good business for the USD.



Expected mid-market ranges for December 2nd 2024

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.2650 - $1.2725    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

    €1.2000 - €1.2100    

Upcoming Data
Monday 2nd December 2024
14:45 US - Manufacturing PMI
15:00 US - Construction spending




Tuesday 3rd December 2024
00:00 UK - Retail sales monitor
07:45 EU - French government budget balance
08:00 EU - Spanish unemployment change
15:00 US - Job openings



Wednesday 4th December 2024
09:00 EU - BoE Governor Bailey speech
13:15 US - Non-farm employment change
13:30 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech
15:00 US - Factory orders
18:45 US - Fed chair Powell speech



Thursday 5th December 2024
07:00 EU - German factory orders 
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims & trade balance
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet




Friday 6th December 2024
07:00 EU - German industrial production & trade balance
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone employment change & GDP
13:30 US - Average earnings, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate 




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