As expected then, the Pound was not impacted by the UK general election. The polls called it right with a landslide Labour victory and financial markets have remained stable. What happens next in and with the UK remains to be seen, but the build up and outcome itself has been a non-event for Sterling.
Over in France, things are much more uncertain. Again, as expected, Marine Le Pen's RN Party won the first round of elections. By not winning by a clear majority, this was € positive. A far-right majority poses questions as to whether France remains in the EU.
This Sunday, we have round 2 where again RN are due to be victorious. However, the polls show the win won't be enough to secure the seats RN needs to govern. This makes things complicated because no other party looks willing to join RN and so a hung parliament scenario is expected.
In this case, the Euro may strengthen as effectively this is a 'kicking the can down the road' scenario. October would be next for when the cloud of uncertainty covers France again with the French budget. The fiscal outlook in France is very concerning and this is a key reason why the Euro would sink if a far-right or a far-left majority wins. Finances are expected to deteriorate further if either party wins.
Finally, a quick note to say that it is our 20th birthday today!!
Thank you to our wonderful clients, our loyal partners and everyone else who has played their part and helped us along this exciting journey. Here's to more success!
| On this day - |
In 1687, Isaac Newton's Principia is published by the Royal Society in England In 1811, Venezuela declares independence from Spain In 1865, US Secret Service begins operating under the Treasury department In 1954, the BBC broadcasts its first television news bulletin In 1994, Amazon is founded by Jeff Bezos |
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