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Key Economic Data Being Released This Week

Another 'stick or twist' moment for anyone with exchanges in the pipeline..



GBP
Last week, the Pound was under some pressure and fell for 5-consecutive days after the latest round of global stocks being sold. Although, the sell-off was only
minimal and Sterling fell on average just 0.3% across the board. 

This week presents some huge data releases and economists are split in the outcomes for all. The UK offers crucial wage numbers tomorrow that may create market volatility if pressures remain too sticky or fall faster than expected. 

On Wednesday, it's another close call with the UK's GDP release. 0.2% growth is expected, up from 0% last time out. But again, anything more or less than that could cause market movements. Other than that, Sterling will be moved by events elsewhere.

An important note - Historically, September is a month which generally sees global equities fall. As GBP is not a safe-haven currency and investor sentiment is risk off, this can mean a devaluation in the Pound..




EUR
The headline event this week comes from the Euro-Zone in the form of the ECB's interest rate decision. Interest rates remain the market driver and so anything out of the central banks still needs to be watched closely. 

25bp rate cut is priced in and the forward guidance is anticipated to say along the lines of the bank will be data-driven and non-committal. Any deviation from what is expected and we will see volatility.



USD
It's obvious that the US economy is slowing, but it looks apparent that it's not slowing fast enough to warrant the Fed aggressively cutting interest rates. We will find out soon if the Fed does cut this month and by how much (potentially big global ramifications if it does) and the final test will come from the US inflation data this Wednesday..


Expected mid-market ranges for September 9th 2024

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3000 - $1.3100    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

    €1.1800 - €1.1850    

Upcoming Data
Monday 9th September 2024
15:00 US - Wholesale inventories
20:00 US - Consumer credit




Tuesday 10th September 2024
07:00 UK - Average earnings & unemployment rate
07:00 EU - German CPI

08:00 EU - Spanish industrial production
09:00 EU - Italian industrial production
10:00 EU - EU economic forecasts


Wednesday 11th September 2024
07:00 UK - GDP, trade balance & industrial/manufacturing production
10:30 EU - German 10-year bund auction
11:00 EU - Eurogroup meetings
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - CPI


Thursday 12th September 2024
08:00 EU - Spanish CPI
13:15 EU - ECB interest rate decision
13:30 US - PPI, initial/continuing jobless claims
13:45 EU - ECB press conference 
15:15 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech

19:00 US - Fed budget
21:30 US - Fed balance sheet




Friday 13th September 2024
07:45 EU - French CPI
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone industrial production