UK recession in Q1? Probably not after today's results.. |
Once again, the weekly yo-yo for GBP in February is at play. A significant uptick (and not modest as forecast) was realised in UK PMI data this morning and Sterling trades comfortably in the green across the board. The figures show the economy has rebounded into growth territory and March depending, will look to avoid a (regularly tipped) recession in Q1. The data shows the UK private sector has ended a 6-month period of falling output. Fewer supply shortages, improving business confidence and rising consumer demand are seen in abundance in the surveys for February. The all-important services number smashed expectations (53.3 v 49.2), the Composite number delivered a 4-point increase on consensus (53 v 49) and Manufacturing was just below the magic number of 50 (49.2 v 47.5). Plenty of £-€ exchanges have been locked in this morning (as with any 1% quick gain) and it sets GBP up nicely for the week ahead. Next week is a different story of course and so if you have any transfers in the pipeline (£-€ mainly) now, hedging at least some today would be a wise decision. |