US political scene the main event this week



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
January 20th, 2025
Sterling jumps 1% versus safe-haven currencies today as Donald Trump takes office (USD, JPY & CHF)..



GBP
Today is a US holiday, so the first responses to President Trumps' inauguration will be felt during Asian trade (when most of us in the UK/EU are asleep). 

For now, it seems investors have continued their 'risk on' moods from Friday, as global stocks have continued to rise which has seen the FTSE 100 hit and maintain a record high. 

The Pound has increased by 1% against the safe-haven currencies (most notably the USD), giving some respite on what has been a terrible 2025 so far. £-€ unfortunately has continued its weakness and hit a fresh 5-month low earlier today.

After a tough week with poor economic data coming out of the UK, President Trump holds the near & possibly long-term key for the Pounds fortunes. So it will be another volatile week ahead with 'Mr Unpredictable' calling the financial market shots now.

The UK does have key economic data releases this week that will impact Sterling. Jobs & the PMI's are both potential market movers, so beware this is another tricky week for GBP.



EUR
There is no doubt the £-€ is in a downward trend and most are bearish on the pair even from the current position. However, some believe the weakness has gone too far and depending on whether the EU can post better PMI's than the UK, the Euro could face weakness next. 

The Euro bounced back against the Dollar today by nearly 2%, a significant move. But with US markets closed and Trump tariffs awaiting confirmation, it could soon be down to parity €-$ goes..



USD
On Friday, Donald Trump launched a digital token (as did his wife Melania) branded with an image from his attempted assassination in July. This is just a taste of his interest in the crypto/tech space, his deregulation push and his complete unpredictability

Uncertainty is bad business remember and so we can expect very volatile times ahead on financial markets, not just with his actions but simply with his words. There will be a lot of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' amongst traders looking to profit from Trump volatility and so hedging and securing Forward Contracts are absolutely essential for those exposed to large FX transfers this year.


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for January 20th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.2200 - $1.2350    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

    €1.1800 - €1.1850    

Upcoming Data
Monday 20th January 2025
17:00 US - Donald Trump inauguration 



Tuesday 21st January 2025
07:00 UK - Average earnings & unemployment rate




Wednesday 22nd January 2025
07:00 UK - Public sector borrowing
15:15 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech



Thursday 23rd January 2025
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet




Friday 24th January 2025
00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
08:15 EU - French PMI
08:30 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - PMI
14:45 US - PMI

15:00 US - Existing home sales




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