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Weekly Update | Currency insight from Excel Currencies |
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| Written by Dan Waterman November 18th, 2024 |
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Market volatility expected this week with plenty of economic releases due out from the majors..
| GBP
| It was this time last week I was writing about how £-€ had surprised just about everybody with a 2% gain in just 2-weeks. The question I posed was 'were we in overbought territory or was this the new normal for the pair?' Well, it turns out it may well had been both..
GBP v EUR ended up losing 1% last week which is drastic for these two which has seen a 3% swing in just 3-weeks as opposed to the usual 2/3-months. Overbought territory was surely at play last week and was then compounded by a poor UK GDP figure.
But depending on what happens this week with inflation & the PMI'S, current levels versus the Euro could be the new norm for the foreseeable. This is crucial because this time last year, the mid-market rate was trading at 1.14. A 5% gain in 1-year is quite impressive and the last 2-years in fact have been quite the turnaround for the pair. More on this towards the end of the year..
As also explained last week, £-$ is on the way down and has been for 7 consecutive weeks now. Many are suggesting overbought territory has now been hit and we tend to agree as a 2% loss last week was a bit dramatic. We expected to see 1.28 mid-market tested and instead 1.26 was breached.
As you can see from the economic calendar below, there is a lot going on and so we are sitting on the fence this week in terms of forecasting and suggestions as there are simply too many variables at play.
EUR The Euro-Zone releases important inflation & PMI data this week along with the UK and so it will be a 1-on-1 battle for supremacy (at least for this week anyway). The Euro continued to give way to the King Dollar last week and more of the same could be seen this time round too, data dependent of course.
USD So, is this the week that the Dollar's march on the market ends?
Most index's, charts and economists think so, but as nothing is guaranteed in this market, don't be surprised to see the dominance continue. The US offer jobs and PMI this week and both are expected to be 'strong', so unless the UK and/or the EU deliver something special, we may well see further USD gains.
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Expected mid-market ranges for November 18th 2024 | | |
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Upcoming Data | Monday 18th November 2024 | n/a
| Tuesday 19th November 2024 | 10:00 UK - BoE Governor Bailey speech & MPC hearing 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone core inflation & inflation rate 13:30 US - Building permits & housing starts
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Wednesday 20th November 2024 | 07:00 UK - Core inflation & inflation rate 09:00 EU - ECB financial stability review 13:30 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech 16:00 UK - MPC member Ramsden speech
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| Thursday 21st November 2024 | 13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims 14:00 UK - MPC member Mann speech 15:00 US - Pending home sales 21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet |
| Friday 22nd November 2024 | 00:00 UK - Consumer confidence 07:00 UK - Retail sales 07:00 EU - German GDP 08:15 EU - French PMI 08:30 EU - German PMI 09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI 09:30 UK - PMI 14:45 US - PMI
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