Will GBP recover after last week's drop in value?

logo18year
Weekly Update
Currency insight from
Excel Currencies
banner1

waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
November 18th, 2024
Market volatility expected this week with plenty of economic releases due out from the majors..



GBP
It was this time last week I was writing about how £-€ had surprised just about everybody with a 2% gain in just 2-weeks. The question I posed was 'were we in overbought territory or was this the new normal for the pair?' Well, it turns out it may well had been both..

GBP v EUR ended up losing 1% last week which is drastic for these two which has seen a 3% swing in just 3-weeks as opposed to the usual 2/3-months. Overbought territory was surely at play last week and was then compounded by a poor UK GDP figure. 

But depending on what happens this week with inflation & the PMI'S, current levels versus the Euro could be the new norm for the foreseeable. This is crucial because this time last year, the mid-market rate was trading at 1.14. A 5% gain in 1-year is quite impressive and the last 2-years in fact have been quite the turnaround for the pair. More on this towards the end of the year..

As also explained last week, £-$ is on the way down and has been for 7 consecutive weeks now. Many are suggesting overbought territory has now been hit and we tend to agree as a 2% loss last week was a bit dramatic. We expected to see 1.28 mid-market tested and instead 1.26 was breached.

As you can see from the economic calendar below, there is a lot going on and so we are sitting on the fence this week in terms of forecasting and suggestions as there are simply too many variables at play.




EUR
The Euro-Zone releases important inflation & PMI data this week along with the UK and so it will be a 1-on-1 battle for supremacy (at least for this week anyway). The Euro continued to give way to the King Dollar last week and more of the same could be seen this time round too, data dependent of course.



USD
So, is this the week that the Dollar's march on the market ends?

Most index's, charts and economists think so, but as nothing is guaranteed in this market, don't be surprised to see the dominance continue. The US offer jobs and PMI this week and both are expected to be 'strong', so unless the UK and/or the EU deliver something special, we may well see further USD gains.



Expected mid-market ranges for November 18th 2024

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.2550 - $1.2650    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

    €1.1900 - €1.2000    

Upcoming Data
Monday 18th November 2024
n/a



Tuesday 19th November 2024
10:00 UK - BoE Governor Bailey speech & MPC hearing
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone core inflation & inflation rate
13:30 US - Building permits & housing starts



Wednesday 20th November 2024
07:00 UK - Core inflation & inflation rate
09:00 EU - ECB financial stability review
13:30 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech
16:00 UK - MPC member Ramsden speech



Thursday 21st November 2024
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims
14:00 UK - MPC member Mann speech
15:00 US - Pending home sales
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet




Friday 22nd November 2024
00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 UK - Retail sales
07:00 EU - German GDP
08:15 EU - French PMI
08:30 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - PMI
14:45 US - PMI




open-account
Open an account
No credit checks are required and it takes just 2-minutes to register. It is free to set up, maintain and close and there is no-obligation to trade with us.

review
Check out our 5* Trustpilot reviews
Find out why we are the UK’s number 1 rated currency brokerage for overseas property buyers and sellers, from people just like you!

funds-safe
How we keep your funds safe
Let us answer and explain the most important question you should be thinking when considering using a company like us to transfer your money abroad.

choose-us
Why choose us?
Read what sets us apart in the industry, how we take a different approach to overseas payments & why we should be your choice.

Hedging
Hedging
A key component to our offering is risk management of your funds. Here we explain some important products you should be considering when moving a large sum abroad. 

How we can help
Since 2004, we have been helping customers move their money overseas safely, quickly and at a preferable rate of exchange. Whether your requirements are purchasing a dream property abroad or your business is paying suppliers for products, we can help.

We are the exclusive currency partner to many well established real estate agencies and solicitors worldwide and we consult a varied customer base who have large requirements for foreign exchange.
Our team of experienced currency consultants will save you an enormous amount of time and money, by getting to know you, your requirements and your risk appetite. Your dedicated account manager will be there to offer you expert guidance to ensure your money goes further.
Get in touch with us today for a personal service that you won't get anywhere else on 01322 221 121 or email us at info@excelcurrencies.com
Referral Rewards
Referrals are the lifeblood of our business. Good reviews are our metric for success. We are driven by making a difference in peoples lives when it comes to overseas payments and if you know anyone that could benefit from our service, please let us know here..
We have some great rewards to offer
Virgin
Virgin
wine
Wine
amazon-voucher
Amazon
golf
Golf
Refer now